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Global Analysis of the Markets for Solar Products & Five-Year Forecast characterizes and describes global market demand for photovoltaic products by application, module size, incentive, region and country based on a year-long survey of distributors, system integrators, dealers, and government agencies in over 80 countries around the world.  This report is designed to assist in the development of marketing strategies by identifying sales volume, application splits, and market trends for the multinational regions worldwide, including North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Oceania, as well as providing an aggregate analysis of demand by application sector.  The understanding of local and regional market characteristics also serves as a basis for tactical decisions on utilization of corporate marketing and sales resources: markets on which to be focused, organizational issues such as direct sales staffing versus entry into existing selling channels, advertising and promotional materials required to address target markets, applications support required, etc.  Through primary survey data and market analysis, the report provides a comprehensive top-down and bottom-up view of the size of the market, the growth potential for national markets and applications, and the trends to anticipate in future years.



Table of Contents: 

​Contents

1.     Introduction.. 9

1.1       Purpose and Scope. 9

1.2       Methodology. 11

1.3       Format. 15

2.     Executive Summary. 16

2.1       Report Highlights. 21

2.2       Overview of PV Industry Activity through 2017  22

2.2.1        What to Expect Through 2020. 24

2.2.2        Global Analysis Assumptions. 25

2.3       Application Overview.. 27

2.3.1        Application Growth through 2027. 28

2.4       Regional Overview.. 30

3.     Application Forecast: 2017-2022. 34

3.1       Historic Solar Industry Application Growth. 38

3.2       Application Market Share and Growth Rates  51

3.3       Photovoltaic Revenue Growth. 56

3.4       Selling Channels. 59

3.5       Solar Business Model Overview.. 67

3.6       Forecast Demand Volume 2017 – 2022. 74

3.7       Market Sector Analysis. 78

3.7.1        Market Share by Application and Module Size. 79

3.7.2        Remote Industrial Application. 83

3.7.3        Remote Industrial: Communications and Telemetry. 84

3.7.4        Remote Industrial: Cathodic Protection  90

3.7.5        Remote Industrial: Transportation Signals  93

3.7.6        Remote Habitation. 97

3.7.7        Remote Habitation: Water Pumping. 99

3.7.8        Remote Habitation : Village Power. 103

3.7.9        Remote Habitation: Outdoor Lighting. 111

3.7.10      Remote Habitation: Other. 114

3.7.11      Consumer Power. 117

3.7.12      Grid-Connected Application. 122

3.7.13 Grid-Residential 131

3.7.14 Grid-Commercial 135

3.7.15 Grid-Commercial Multi-Megawatt Deployment. 139

3.7.16 Grid- Utility Owned. 141

3.7.17       Consumer Indoor. 143

3.8       Application Forecast to 2027. 146

4.         North America: US and Canada. 151

4.1       United States. 158

4.1.1        U.S. Market Description. 158

4.1.2        Examples of US Business Models. 169

4.1.3        Examples of US Incentives. 174

4.1.4        Overview of U.S. States. 183

4.2       Canada. 186

4.2.1        Overview of Canada’s PV Incentive Programs  188

5      Latin America. 190

5.1       Mexico. 199

5.2       Chile. 203

5.3       Central America. 206

5.4       South America. 208

5.5        Caribbean. 210

6.     Asia Pacific & Oceania. 211

6.1       West Asia. 220

6.1.1 India. 221

6.2       Asia. 225

6.2.1        China. 226

6.2.2        Japan. 231

6.3       Southeast Asia. 234

6.4       Oceania. 237

7      Europe. 240

7.1 Germany. 250

7.2       France. 251

8      Africa and the Middle East. 252

8.1       Africa. 260

8.1.1        Republic of South Africa. 267

8.2        Middle East. 270

 


 

Figures

Figure 2.1 Photovoltaic Industry Activity: 1977 to 2017. 22

Figure 2.2 Global Forecast: 2017 through 2020. 24

Figure 2.3 Market Shares by Module Size, 2017. 29

Figure 3.1 Global Application Shares 2017. 35

Figure 3.2 Off-Grid Application Growth: 2012-2017. 40

Figure 3.3 Grid-Connected Application Growth: 2012-2017. 40

Figure 3.4 Off Grid & Grid Connected Application Growth, 1986-2000. 41

Figure 3.5 Off Grid & Grid Connected Application Growth, 1987-2017. 42

Figure 3.6 Photovoltaic Industry Activity: 1977 to 2017. 44

Figure 3.7 PV Inventory, Capacity, Production, Shipments, Installations & Defective Modules, 2017 into 2018. 55

Figure 3.8 Photovoltaic Module Shipments, Costs, ASPs, Price/Cost Delta, 2007-2017. 56

Figure 3.9 Worldwide Cell/Module Revenue Forecast 2007-2022. 57

Figure 3.10 Worldwide System & Application Revenues, 2016 & 2017. 58

Figure 3.11 Worldwide System & Application Shares, 2016 & 2017. 58

Figure 3.12 Market Shares by Module Size, 2016. 80

Figure 3.13 Market Shares by Module Size, 2017. 80

Figure 3.14 Remote Industrial Regional Market Shares, 2017. 83

Figure 3.15 Remote Industrial Sub-Application Market Shares, 2017. 83

Figure 3.16 Remote Habitation Regional Market Shares, 2017. 98

Figure 3.17 Remote Habitation Sub Application Shares, 2017. 98

Figure 3.18 Example of Remote PV Powered Generator. 104

Figure 3.19 Consumer Power Regional Market Shares, 2017. 118

Figure 3.20 Consumer Power Sub-Application Shares, 2017. 118

Figure 3.21 Grid Residential, Commercial and Utility-Owned Regional Market Shares, 2017. 123

Figure 3.22 Grid-Connected Residential, Commercial and Utility Owned Shares 2017. 123

Figure 3.23 Grid-Connected History & Forecast, 2012-2022. 126

Figure 3.24 Grid-Residential History & Forecast, 2012-2022. 132

Figure 3.25 Grid-Commercial History & Forecast, 2012-2022. 135

Figure 3.26 Grid-Commercial Off-Roof & On-Roof, Tracking Versus Non-Tracking 2017. 136

Figure 3.27 Grid-Utility Owned History & Forecast, 2012-2022. 141

Figure 3.28 Consumer Indoor Regional Market Shares, 2017. 143

Figure 3.29 Consumer Indoor Sub Application Shares, 2017. 143

Figure 3.30 Long-Term Photovoltaic Forecast, MWp 2007-2027. 146

Figure 3.31: Price History & Forecast all ASP Categories, 1997-2027 (2017 Constant Dollars) 150

Figure 4.1 North America Forecast 2016-2020. 153

Figure 4.2 North America Application Split 2017. 154

Figure 4.3 US PV Application Shares 2017. 158

Figure 4.4 US PV Application Contribution 2007-2017. 159

Figure 4.5 US PV Commercial Application System Sizes, 2012-2017. 160

Figure 4.6 US Top States for Solar PV Deployment, 2017. 164

Figure 4.7 US Demand/Supply Profile, 2012-2017. 166

Figure 4.8 US Supply and Demand Market Metrics 2017 into 2018. 167

Figure 4.9 Canada Application Shares, 2017. 186

Figure 5.1 Latin America Forecast 2017-2020. 191

Figure 5.2 Latin America Region Application Share 2017. 192

Figure 5.3 Mexico Application Shares 2017. 200

Figure 5.4 Chile Application Shares 2017. 204

Figure 5.5 Central America Application Shares 2017. 206

Figure 5.6 South America Application Shares 2017. 208

Figure 5.7 Caribbean Application Shares 2017. 210

Figure 6.1 Asia-Pacific/Oceania Forecast 2016-2020. 213

Figure 6.2 Asia-Pacific/Oceania Application Shares, 2017. 213

Figure 6.3 Global Module Assembly Capacity 2017. 214

Figure 6.4 Regional Shipments & Demand, Malaysia, Japan, China and India 2012-2017. 215

Figure 6.5 West Asia Application Shares, 2017. 220

Figure 6.6 India Application Shares, 2017. 221

Figure 6.7 India Solar PV Forecast 2016-2020. 224

Figure 6.8 Asia Application Shares 2017. 225

Figure 6.9 China Application Shares, 2017. 226

Figure 6.10 China Forecast 2016-2020. 230

Figure 6.11 Japan Application Shares, 2017. 231

Figure 6.12 Japan Forecast 2016-2020. 233

Figure 6.13 South East Asia Application Shares, 2017. 234

Figure 6.14 South East Asia Forecast 2016-2020. 236

Figure 6.15 Oceania and Australia Application Shares, 2017. 237

Figure 6.16: Australia Forecast 2016-2020. 239

Figure 7.1 Europe Demand for Solar PV 2005-2015. 242

Figure 7.2 Europe Forecast 2016-2020. 244

Figure 7.3 Europe Application Shares 2017. 245

Figure 7.4: Germany Forecast 2016-2020. 250

Figure 7.5: France Forecast 2016-2020. 251

Figure 8.1 Africa & the Middle East Forecast, 2017-2020. 253

Figure 8.2 Africa & the Middle East Application Shares 2017. 254

Figure 8.3 Africa Application Shares 2017. 260

Figure 8.4 North Africa Forecast 2017-2020. 264

Figure 8.5 Central & Southern Africa Forecast 2017-2020. 264

Figure 8.6 Republic of South Africa Application Shares 2017. 267

Figure 8.7 Republic of South Africa Forecast 2016. 269

Figure 8.8 Middle East Application Shares 2017. 270

Figure 8.9 Middle East Forecast 2017-2020. 273

 

Tables

Table 2.1 Overview of Low Forecast Assumptions. 25

Table 2.2 Overview of Conservative Forecast Assumptions. 26

Table 2.3 Overview of Accelerated Forecast Assumptions. 26

Table 2.4 Major Market Categories and Sales Volume by Channel. 27

Table 2.5 Major Application History, Growth, Forecast & CAGR Rates 2007-2027. 28

Table 2.6 Regional Application Shares 2017*. 30

Table 2.7: Regional Forecast 2016 – 2020*. 31

Table 2.8: Regional Attractiveness 2018*. 33

Table 3.1 PV Industry Growth 1997 – 2017. 43

Table 3.2 Application Trends 2002-2017 (1,2,3) 46

Table 3.3 Generic Application Segments. 47

Table 3.4 Regional Application Deployment, 2017*. 48

Table 3.5 Regional Demand, Installations and Shipments, 2012-2017*. 49

Table 3.6 2017 PV Module Assembly Capacity, c-Si Cell/Thin Film Capacity, Shipments & Announced Shipments *. 50

Table 3.7 Aggregate Application Growth 2012-2017*. 51

Table 3.8 Major Application History, Growth, Forecast & CAGR Rates 2007-2027. 52

Table 3.9 Three Year Application Forecast, 2017 – 2020*. 54

Table 3.10 2017 Selling Channels for Major Applications by Volume Share (1) (2) 61

Table 3.11 Major Photovoltaic Application Categories. 73

Table 3.12 PV Industry Application Growth* 1992-2017. 74

Table 3.13 Conservative Application Forecast, 2012-2022*. 76

Table 3.14 Accelerated Application Forecast, 2012-2022*. 77

Table 3.15 Application Categories. 78

Table 3.16 Historic Market Share by Application & Module Size. 81

Table 3.17 2017 Market Share by Application & Module Size (1) 82

Table 3.18 Communications & Telemetry, MWp & % of Category 2012-2022(1) 85

Table 3.19 Cathodic Protection Applications MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 92

Table 3.20 Transportation Signals Applications MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 96

Table 3.21 Water Pumping MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 101

Table 3.22 Village Power Applications MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 107

Table 3.23 Outdoor Lighting Applications MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 113

Table 3.24 Other Applications MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 116

Table 3.25 Consumer Power Applications MWp & % of Category 2012-2022(1) 121

Table 3.26 Grid-Connected Application Growth 1997-2017*. 122

Table 3.27 Grid Connected Applications MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 127

Table 3.28 Summary of End User Concerns*. 129

Table 3.29 US Average System prices 2012 through 2017. 130

Table 3.30 Residential Business Models*. 134

Table 3.31 Cost Analysis for PV Systems >5-MWp in the US, China and India. 140

Table 3.32 Consumer Indoor MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 145

Table 4.1: North America Regional Forecast 2016 – 2020*. 152

Table 4.2 North America Demand Growth* Low, Conservative & Accelerated, 2016-2020. 155

Table 4.3 North America Application % of Total* 2015, 2016, 2017. 156

Table 4.4 US and Canada Regional Attractiveness 2018. 157

Table 4.5 US Electricity Prices in Cents/kWh by Segment & Region Mid-2017. 165

Table 4.6: US System Prices, 2011-2017. 168

Table 4.7 US Forecast by Application Segment, 2017-2022*. 182

Table 4.8 US State Market Attractiveness 2018. 185

Table 4.9 Electricity Rates by Canadian Province in cents/kWh. 187

Table 4.10:  Overview of Rebates and Net Metering in Canada. 188

Table 4.11:  Ontario Power Authority FiT/MicroFiT Price Schedule as of January 1, 2017. 189

Table 5.1: Latin America Regional Forecast 2016 – 2020*. 190

Table 5.2 Latin America Regional Growth, 2016-20201,2,3,4) 193

Table 5.3 Latin America Regional Application Shares 2017*. 194

Table 5.4 Latin America Market Attractiveness 2018. 198

Table 5.5 Mexico Average Utility Scale System Costs. 199

Table 5.6 Chile Average Utility Scale System Costs. 203

Table 6.1 Asia Pacific & Oceania Regional Forecast 2016 – 2020*. 211

Table 6.2 Asia-Pacific-Oceania Growth 2016-2020 MWp (1,2,3) 216

Table 6.3 Asia-Pacific-Oceania Regional Application Breakdown % 20171) 217

Table 6.4 Asia-Pacific-Oceania Regional Attractiveness 2018. 219

Table 6.5 Example of Utility Scale Costs in India. 223

Table 6.6 Example of Utility Scale Costs in China. 229

Table 6.7 Example of Utility Scale Costs in Japan. 232

Table 7.1 Europe Regional Forecast 2016 – 2020*. 243

Table 7.2: Europe Growth 2016-2020 MWp. 247

Table 7.3: Europe Application Shares 2017*. 248

Table 7.4: Europe Attractiveness 2018. 249

Table 8.1 Africa & Middle East Regional Forecast 2016 – 2020*. 252

Table 8.2: Africa & the Middle East Application Shares, 2017*. 255

Table 8.3 Africa & the Middle East Regional Growth 2016-2020*. 256

Table 8.4: Africa & the Middle East Select Market Attractiveness 2018. 259

Table 8.5 Namibia Net Metering Avoided Cost. 266


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