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Global Analysis of the Markets for Solar Products & Five-Year Forecast characterizes and describes global market demand for photovoltaic products by application, module size, incentive, region and country based on a year-long survey of distributors, system integrators, dealers, and government agencies in over 80 countries around the world.  This report is designed to assist in the development of marketing strategies by identifying sales volume, application splits, and market trends for the multinational regions worldwide, including North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Oceania, as well as providing an aggregate analysis of demand by application sector.  The understanding of local and regional market characteristics also serves as a basis for tactical decisions on utilization of corporate marketing and sales resources: markets on which to be focused, organizational issues such as direct sales staffing versus entry into existing selling channels, advertising and promotional materials required to address target markets, applications support required, etc.  Through primary survey data and market analysis, the report provides a comprehensive top-down and bottom-up view of the size of the market, the growth potential for national markets and applications, and the trends to anticipate in future years.
Contents

1.     Introduction. 10

1.1       Purpose and Scope. 10

1.2       Methodology. 12

1.3       Format. 15

2.     Executive Summary. 16

2.1       Overview of PV Industry Activity 2006 through 2016. 16

2.1.1        What to Expect Through 2019. 21

2.1.2        Global Analysis Assumptions. 22

2.2       Application Overview.. 24

2.2.1        Application Growth through 2026. 25

2.3       Regional Overview.. 27

3.     Application Forecast: 2016-2021. 31

3.1       Historic Solar Industry Application Growth. 35

3.2       Application Market Share and Growth Rates. 48

3.3       Photovoltaic Revenue Growth. 52

3.4       Selling Channels. 55

3.5       Solar Business Model Overview.. 62

3.6       Forecast Demand Volume 2016 – 2021. 69

3.7       Market Sector Analysis. 73

3.7.1        Market Share by Application and Module Size. 74

3.7.2        Remote Industrial Application. 77

3.7.3        Remote Industrial: Communications and Telemetry. 78

3.7.4        Remote Industrial: Cathodic Protection. 85

3.7.5        Remote Industrial: Transportation Signals. 88

3.7.6        Remote Habitation. 92

3.7.7        Remote Habitation: Water Pumping. 94

3.7.8        Remote Habitation : Village Power. 98

3.7.9        Remote Habitation: Outdoor Lighting. 107

3.7.10      Remote Habitation: Other. 110

3.7.11      Consumer Power. 113

3.7.12      Grid-Connected Application. 118

3.7.13 Grid-Residential 126

3.7.14 Grid-Commercial 130

3.7.15 Grid-Commercial Multi-Megawatt Deployment. 134

3.7.16 Grid- Utility Owned. 136

3.7.17       Consumer Indoor. 138

3.8       Application Forecast to 2026. 141

4.         North America: US and Canada. 146

4.1       United States. 152

4.1.1        U.S. Market Description. 152

4.1.2        Examples of US Business Models. 162

4.1.3        Examples of US Incentives. 167

4.1.4        Overview of U.S. States. 175

4.2       Canada. 178

4.2.1        Overview of Canada’s PV Incentive Programs. 180

5      Latin America. 182

5.1       Mexico. 191

5.2       Chile. 195

5.3       Central America. 198

5.4       South America. 200

5.5       Caribbean. 202

6.     Asia Pacific & Oceania. 203

6.1       West Asia. 212

6.1.1 India. 213

6.2       Asia. 216

6.2.1        China. 217

6.2.2        Japan. 220

6.3       Southeast Asia. 222

6.4       Oceania. 225

7      Europe. 231

7.1 Germany. 240

7.2       The UK. 241

7.3       France. 243

8      Africa and the Middle East. 245

8.1       Africa. 253

8.1.1        Republic of South Africa. 261

8.2       Middle East. 265

8.2.1        Israel 270


Figures

Figure 2.1 Photovoltaic Industry Activity: 1976 to 2016. 20

Figure 2.2 Global Forecast: 2016 through 2019. 21

Figure 2.3 Market Shares by Module Size, 2016. 26

Figure 3.1 Global Application Shares 2016. 32

Figure 3.2 Off-Grid Application Growth: 2011-2016. 37

Figure 3.3 Grid-Connected Application Growth: 2011-2016. 37

Figure 3.4 Off Grid & Grid Connected Application Growth, 1986-2000. 38

Figure 3.5 Off Grid & Grid Connected Application Growth, 1986-2016. 39

Figure 3.6 Photovoltaic Industry Activity: 1976 to 2016. 41

Figure 3.7 PV Inventory, Capacity, Production, Shipments, Installations & Defective Modules, 2016 into 2017. 51

Figure 3.8 Photovoltaic Module Shipments, Costs, ASPs, Price/Cost Delta, 2006-2016. 52

Figure 3.9 Worldwide Cell/Module Revenue Forecast 2006-2021. 53

Figure 3.10 Worldwide System & Application Revenues, 2015 & 2016. 54

Figure 3.11 Worldwide System & Application Shares, 2015 & 2016. 54

Figure 3.12 Market Shares by Module Size, 2015. 74

Figure 3.13 Market Shares by Module Size, 2016. 74

Figure 3.14 Remote Industrial Regional Market Shares, 2016. 77

Figure 3.15 Remote Industrial Sub-Application Market Shares, 2016. 77

Figure 3.16 Remote Habitation Regional Market Shares, 2016. 93

Figure 3.17 Remote Habitation Sub Application Shares, 2016. 93

Figure 3.18 Example of Remote PV Powered Generator. 99

Figure 3.19 Consumer Power Regional Market Shares, 2016. 114

Figure 3.20 Consumer Power Sub-Application Shares, 2016. 114

Figure 3.21 Grid Residential, Commercial and Utility-Owned Regional Market Shares, 2016. 119

Figure 3.22 Grid-Connected Residential, Commercial and Utility Owned Shares 2016. 119

Figure 3.23 Grid-Connected History & Forecast, 2011-2021. 121

Figure 3.24 Grid-Residential History & Forecast, 2011-2021. 127

Figure 3.25 Grid-Commercial History & Forecast, 2011-2021. 130

Figure 3.26 Grid-Commercial Off-Roof & On-Roof, Tracking Versus Non-Tracking 2016. 131

Figure 3.27 Grid-Utility Owned History & Forecast, 2011-2021. 136

Figure 3.28 Consumer Indoor Regional Market Shares, 2016. 138

Figure 3.29 Consumer Indoor Sub Application Shares, 2016. 138

Figure 3.30 Long-Term Photovoltaic Forecast, MWp 2006-2026. 141

Figure 3.31: Price History & Forecast all ASP Categories, 1996-2026 (2016 Constant Dollars) 145

Figure 4.1 North America Forecast 2015-2019. 147

Figure 4.2 North America Application Split 2016. 148

Figure 4.3 US PV Application Shares 2016. 152

Figure 4.4 US PV Application Contribution 2006-2016. 153

Figure 4.5 US PV Commercial Application System Sizes, 2011-2016. 154

Figure 4.6 US Top States for Solar PV Deployment, 2016. 157

Figure 4.7 US % Electricity Net Generation by Technology (million kWh) 2016. 158

Figure 4.8 US Demand/Supply Profile, 2011-2016. 160

Figure 4.9 US Supply and Demand Market Metrics 2016 into 2017. 160

Figure 4.10 Canada Application Shares, 2016. 178

Figure 5.1 Latin America Most Likely Forecast 2015-2019. 183

Figure 5.2 Latin America Region Application Share 2016. 184

Figure 5.3 Mexico Application Shares 2016. 191

Figure 5.4 Chile Application Shares 2016. 195

Figure 5.5 Central America Application Shares 2016. 198

Figure 5.6 South America Application Shares 2016. 200

Figure 5.7 Caribbean Application Shares 2016. 202

Figure 6.1 Asia-Pacific/Oceania Forecast 2015-2019. 205

Figure 6.2 Asia-Pacific/Oceania Application Shares, 2016. 205

Figure 6.3 Global Module Assembly Capacity 2016. 206

Figure 6.4 Regional Shipments & Demand, Malaysia, Japan, China and India 2011-2016. 207

Figure 6.5 West Asia Application Shares, 2016. 212

Figure 6.6 India Application Shares, 2016. 213

Figure 6.7 India Solar PV Forecast 2015-2019. 215

Figure 6.8 Asia Application Shares 2016. 216

Figure 6.9 China Application Shares, 2016. 217

Figure 6.10 China Forecast 2015-2019. 219

Figure 6.11 Japan Application Shares, 2016. 220

Figure 6.12 Japan Forecast 2015-2019. 221

Figure 6.13 South East Asia Application Shares, 2016. 222

Figure 6.14 South East Asia Forecast 2015-2019. 224

Figure 6.15 Oceania and Australia Application Shares, 2016. 225

Figure 6.16 Australia Utility Shares, 2016. 228

Figure 6.17 Australia Forecast 2015-2019. 230

Figure 7.1 Europe Demand for Solar PV 2005-2015. 232

Figure 7.2 Europe Forecast 2015-2019. 234

Figure 7.3 Europe Application Shares 2016. 235

Figure 7.4: Germany Forecast 2015-2019. 240

Figure 7.5: UK Forecast 2015-2019. 242

Figure 7.6: France Forecast 2015-2019. 244

Figure 8.1 Africa & the Middle East Forecast, 2015-2019. 246

Figure 8.2 Africa & the Middle East Application Shares 2016. 247

Figure 8.3 Africa Application Shares 2016. 253

Figure 8.4 North Africa Forecast 2015-2019. 257

Figure 8.5 Central & Southern Africa Forecast 2015-2019. 257

Figure 8.6 Republic of South Africa Application Shares 2016. 261

Figure 8.7 Republic of South Africa Forecast 2015-2019. 264

Figure 8.8 Middle East Application Shares 2016. 265

Figure 8.9 Middle East Forecast 2015-2019. 269

Figure 8.10 Israel Application Shares 2016. 270

Figure 8.11 Israel Forecast 2015-2019. 271


Tables

Table 2.1 Overview of Low Forecast Assumptions. 22

Table 2.2 Overview of Conservative Forecast Assumptions. 23

Table 2.3 Overview of Accelerated Forecast Assumptions. 23

Table 2.4 Major Market Categories and Sales Volume by Channel. 24

Table 2.5 Major Application History, Growth, Forecast & CAGR Rates 2006-2026. 25

Table 2.6 Regional Application Shares 2016*. 27

Table 2.7: Regional Forecast 2015 – 2019*. 28

Table 2.8: Regional Attractiveness 2017*. 30

Table 3.1 PV Industry Growth 1996 – 2016. 40

Table 3.2 Application Trends 2001-2016 (1,2,3) 43

Table 3.3 Generic Application Segments. 44

Table 3.4 Regional Application Deployment, 2016*. 45

Table 3.5 Regional Demand, Installations and Shipments, 2011-2016*. 46

Table 3.6 2016 PV Module Assembly Capacity, c-Si Cell/Thin Film Capacity, Shipments & Announced Shipments *. 47

Table 3.7 Aggregate Application Growth 2011-2016*. 48

Table 3.8 Major Application History, Growth, Forecast & CAGR Rates 2006-2026. 49

Table 3.9 Three Year Application Forecast, 2016 – 2019*. 50

Table 3.10 2016 Selling Channels for Major Applications by Volume Share (1) (2) 56

Table 3.11 Major Photovoltaic Application Categories. 68

Table 3.12 PV Industry Application Growth* 1991-2016. 69

Table 3.13 Conservative Application Forecast, 2011-2021*. 71

Table 3.14 Accelerated Application Forecast, 2011-2021*. 72

Table 3.15 Application Categories. 73

Table 3.16 Historic Market Share by Application & Module Size. 75

Table 3.17 2016 Market Share by Application & Module Size (1) 76

Table 3.18 Communications & Telemetry, MWp & % of Category 2011-2021(1) 79

Table 3.19 Cathodic Protection Applications MWp & % of Category, 2011-2021(1) 87

Table 3.20 Transportation Signals Applications MWp & % of Category, 2011-2021(1) 91

Table 3.21 Water Pumping MWp & % of Category, 2011-2021(1) 96

Table 3.22 Village Power Applications MWp & % of Category, 2011-2021(1) 102

Table 3.23 Outdoor Lighting Applications MWp & % of Category, 2011-2021(1) 109

Table 3.24 Other Applications MWp & % of Category, 2011-2021(1) 112

Table 3.25 Consumer Power Applications MWp & % of Category 2011-2021(1) 117

Table 3.26 Grid-Connected Application Growth 1996-2016*. 118

Table 3.27 Grid Connected Applications MWp & % of Category, 2011-2021(1) 122

Table 3.28 Summary of End User Concerns*. 124

Table 3.29 US Average System prices 2011 through 2016. 125

Table 3.30 Residential Business Models*. 129

Table 3.31 Cost Analysis for PV Systems >5-MWp in the US, China and India*. 135

Table 3.32 Consumer Indoor MWp & % of Category, 2011-2021(1) 140

Table 4.1: North America Regional Forecast 2015 – 2019*. 146

Table 4.2 North America Demand Growth* Low, Conservative & Accelerated, 2015-2019. 149

Table 4.3 North America Application % of Total* 2014, 2015, 2016. 150

Table 4.4 US and Canada Regional Attractiveness 2017. 151

Table 4.5 US Electricity Prices in Cents/kWh by Segment & Region Mid-2016. 159

Table 4.6: US System Prices, 2011-2017. 161

Table 4.7 US Forecast by Application Segment, 2016-2021*. 174

Table 4.8 US State Market Attractiveness 2017. 177

Table 4.9 Electricity Rates by Canadian Province in cents/kWh. 179

Table 4.10:  Ontario Power Authority FiT/MicroFiT Price Schedule as of January 1, 2017. 181

Table 4.11:  FiT Price Reduction Tiers. 181

Table 4.12:  Ontario Power Authority FiT Price Adders. 181

Table 5.1: Latin America Regional Forecast 2015 – 2019*. 182

Table 5.2 Latin America Regional Growth, 2015-20191,2,3,4) 185

Table 5.3 Latin America Regional Application Shares 2016*. 186

Table 5.4 Latin America Market Attractiveness 2017. 190

Table 6.1 Asia Pacific & Oceania Regional Forecast 2015 – 2019*. 203

Table 6.2 Asia-Pacific-Oceania Growth 2015-2019 MWp (1,2,3) 208

Table 6.3 Asia-Pacific-Oceania Regional Application Breakdown % 20161) 209

Table 6.4 Asia-Pacific-Oceania Regional Attractiveness 2017. 211

Table 6.5 Australia Current Incentives. 227

Table 6.6 Australia Cost Estimate. 229

Table 7.1 Europe Regional Forecast 2015 – 2019*. 233

Table 7.2: Europe Growth 2015-2019 MWp. 237

Table 7.3: Europe Application Shares 2016*. 238

Table 7.4: Europe Attractiveness 2017. 239

Table 8.1 Africa & Middle East Regional Forecast 2015 – 2019*. 245

Table 8.2: Africa & the Middle East Application Shares, 2016*. 248

Table 8.3 Africa & the Middle East Regional Growth 2015-2019*. 249

Table 8.4: Africa & the Middle East Select Market Attractiveness 2017. 252

Table 8.5 Namibia Net Metering Avoided Cost. 260

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