Annual Manufacturer Capacity, Production, Shipments, Price and Revenues Now Available!
· Cumulative shipments from 1975 through 2017 reached 376.6-GWp
· Cell and module revenues to the first buyer grew by 15% from $39.7-billion in 2016 to $45.8-billion in 2017, with shipment volume (32% growth) ameliorating the decrease in ASPs
· Cell and module revenues to the first buyer expected to be flat at an estimated ~$60-billion in 2018 under both the conservative scenario, 105.5-GWp, and the accelerated scenario, 116-GWp. Under the accelerated scenario volume ameliorates low prices
· Average cell/module prices to the first buyer decreased by 8% from $0.53/Wp in 2016 to $0.49/Wp in 2019
· Average cell/module prices to the first buyer expected to increase by 6% in 2018 due to tariff and other trade issues
· Prices to the first buyer reported as low as $0.29/Wp in 2017
· In 2017 China had a 57% share of global shipments at 52.9-GWp (total shipments of 91.9-GWp), and a 57% share of PV deployment at 53-GWp (total installations 92.9-GWp)
· Shipments of cells and modules to the first buyer grew by 32% from 69.5-GWp in 2016 to 91.9-GWp in 2017
· Commercial cell/module manufacturing capacity grew by 36% from 79.6-GWp in 2016 to 108.1-GWp in 2017
· Module assembly capacity reached 134.3-GWp. Currently there is 26.2-GWp more module assembly capacity than cell manufacturing capacity, indicating price pressure on module assemblers (buying cells and shipping to second buyers in the value chain). In this case, cell suppliers can increase price as long as demand remains high, while module assemblers have little power to increase price to buyers
· In 2017 shipments of monocrystalline grew by 47% over 2017 for a 45% share of total shipments (91.9-GWp) Trend favoring p-type PERC mono expected to continue.
· 72+ cell modules now dominate shipments with manufacturers of 60-cell modules hoping to command a price premium. Unfortunately, the price premium has been eroded and the slight premium is unlikely to hold in the long term